Trump May Be SECRETLY Winning And Democrats Are Scared, Forecast Predicts 91% Chance For Trump. While nearly every metric has Trump on track to LOSE in November Democrats are getting worried that Trump is secretly winning and will actually win. A forecast model with a near perfect accuracy predicts Trump will win in November. The Norpoth model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning even with all the negative polls. Perhaps the culture war is not being considered, maybe a Libertarian rush or far left rout will stop Trump. But perhaps the polls are wrong and Trump’s zealous base will turn the tide in the end for not just him but also the Republicans.